KY-02: Boswell Leads Guthrie By 3 in New Poll

SurveyUSA (6/27-29, likely voters):

David Boswell (D): 47

Brett Guthrie (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.3%)

While Kentucky’s 2nd CD is ancestrally Democratic, its PVI is a deep red R+12.9, so this is a pretty strong showing for Boswell — one that might turn some heads in DC. Boswell and Guthrie are both state Senators, but Boswell has been around forever (and even served for a term as the state’s Agriculture Commissioner).

Fundraising has been a bit of an issue for Boswell: his legislative duties have distracted him from putting his full energies into campaigning and raising cash until relatively recently. Guthrie held a nearly 4-to-1 cash-on-hand advantage in the latest filings, which is why the DCCC may have been reluctant to award Boswell with “Red To Blue” status and instead slotted KY-02 in the “Emerging Races” slate for the time being.

However, this result should help grab the attention of donors.

SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican, but it might be due for an upgrade if Boswell continues to perform strongly in the polls and kick his fundraising into a higher gear.

15 thoughts on “KY-02: Boswell Leads Guthrie By 3 in New Poll”

  2. Not really basing this on anything statistically, but it seems like places that traditionally have voted Democratic on the local level, but now vote Republican at the Presidential level, are the ones that are really swinging to Democrats running for Congress.

  4. I would have been happy as long as we were within 5 points here.  From all I’ve read about KY-02 Boswell has run a very lazy campaign and shown poor fundraising numbers.  I guess we’ll know more when his 2nd quarter fundraising numbers come out.  

  5. We should not be too shocked, because Boswell has been around the region for a long time and people know him.  This is not to say that he is a shoe-in, but he is definitely going to be competitive if he can run a robust campaign.

    In terms of KY-04, that was one of our biggest disappointments in 2006.  We recruited Ken Lucas, the old Rep, to run for his old seat, and he was absolutely crushed by Geoff Davis.  That seat may be gone for a long time now.  

  6. fundraising quarter and makes the money gap 2-1 or something like that he should be headed for Red to Blue.

    Great polling news.

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